Media Centre
Press release
BSA PROPERTY TRACKER - MORE BUYERS LOOK TO ENTER PROPERTY MARKET, BUT FEAR OF RECESSION LOOMS LARGE
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Date:
17 Dec 2008
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Increasing numbers of people believe that now is a good time to buy a home, with the BSA’s Property Tracker survey finding that 46% of people agree to some extent that now is a good time to purchase.
Despite several reports suggesting further gloom for the housing sector, sellers will take Christmas cheer from the news that the 46% of people represents an increase from the 34% of people who thought September was a good time to buy and the 27% who did in July.
Paul Broadhead, Head of Mortgage Policy at BSA said:-
“With sentiment playing such an important role in the property market, the gradual increase in the numbers of people who believe it is a good time to buy bodes well for 2009. Also it is clear that increasing numbers of people believe that mortgage finance is more affordable than earlier in the year.”
This is supported by the survey finding that concerns about being able to pay the mortgage are receding, with just 37% of people viewing it as a problem, compared with 54% in September and 70% in July.
However, despite this good news for the property market, it is clear that the threat of a recession looms large and may hamper the market’s recovery in 2009. The lack of job security was identified as the major barrier to home purchase by 58% of respondents, compared to 28% in September and just 12% in June.
Paul Broadhead continued:-
“Although buyers are increasingly optimistic about the future of the property market, it is clear that the threat of recession will mean that even these optimistic buyers will bide their time and wait to see what happens to both property prices and to the economy as a whole before they make their play.”
Against this background, it was not surprising that the average change in price predicted by most respondents for the next year was a fall of 8.6% (see note 3).
Property Tracker survey results:-
The questions asked, and the responses, follow along with the results of the September and June surveys.
To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement – “Now is a good time to buy a residential property in the UK”?
| Dec 08 | Sept 08 | July 08 | |
| Agree strongly | 12% | 7% | 4% |
| Tend to agree | 34% | 26% | 23% |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 14% | 15% | 18% |
| Tend to disagree | 22% | 26% | 33% |
| Disagree strongly | 15% | 22% | 18% |
| Don't know | 3% | 3% | 3% |
Which of the following do you think are most likely to stop someone from buying a residential property at the moment?
| Dec 08 | Sept 08 | July 08 | |
| Lack of job security | 58% | 28% | 12% |
| Access to a large enough mortgage / mortgage at all | 56% | 57% | 49% |
| Raising a deposit | 40% | 42% | 47% |
| Concern about future falls in property prices | 40% | 51% | 46% |
| Affordability of monthly mortgage repayments | 37% | 54% | 70% |
| Legal, valuation and other “official” costs | 10% | 11% | 12% |
| Stamp duty costs | 7% | 11% | 16% |
| Complexity of the buying process | 3% | 6% | 4% |
| Finding the right property | 3% | 4% | 4% |
Respondents could choose up to three factors, so percentages do not sum up to 100%.
BSA’s Property Price Tracker survey also asked respondents how they expect property prices to change in the next twelve months. The average prediction for the year was an 8.6% fall compared to an 8.4% decrease in September and a 7.1% fall predicted by the survey in June³.
~ Ends ~
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The BSA Property Tracker Survey takes place quarterly and provides an understanding of how the British public view the housing market.
All the figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov plc. Total sample size was 2,133 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 5-8 December 2008. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18+).
The averages quoted are median figures based on additional analysis of YouGov survey data carried out by the BSA. This excludes those that replied “don’t know” and assumes answers are evenly distributed through each range of price changes that could be chosen.
The results of the next Property Tracker and Property Price Tracker surveys will be published on March 18 2009.
